Kirk Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp. is planning to offer $8.50 per share for up to 20 million shares of Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F), a 13.3% premium over Friday's close. Tracinda now owns 100 million Ford shares, or 4.7% of the outstanding stock, which would increase to 5.6% when the offer is completed. Ford shares climbed over 6.5% in premarket trading. The deal, announced recently, is helping stock futures' upward movement.
Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) reported a 9.8% rise in its first-quarter earnings as its wireless division attracted more customers than other carriers. Excluding items, earnings were 61 cents per shares, inline with estimates. Revenue rose 5.5% to $23.8 billion, also inline with estimates. VZ shares are up 1.9% in premarket trading.
According to The New York Post, Barry Diller and Liberty Media (NASDAQ: LINTA) Chairman John Malone are continuing to talk about "a deal that would trade one or more of IAC Interactive (NASDAQ: IACI)'s assets for Liberty's ownership stake in IAC." Diller is also "expected to meet with his board this week to restart the process of breaking up his company into five separate pieces."
After hitting a one-year high of $66.00 last April, the stock hit a one-year low of $34.17 in March. This morning, HOG opened at $36.47. So far today the stock has hit a low of $35.34 and a high of $36.47. As of 12:40, HOG is trading at $35.80, down $1.26 (-3.4%). The chart for HOG looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bear-call credit spread above the $40 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in five weeks as long as HOG is below $40 at May expiration. Hershey would have to rise by more than 12% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
HOG hasn't been above $40 by more than a little bit since January and has shown resistance around $39 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on Thursday) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance HOG might find just above $40, where the stock has topped out a few times in the past three months.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in HOG.
Genentech (NYSE:DNA) was cut to "market weight" from "overweight" at Thomas Weisel according toMarketWatch.
Broadpoint upgraded Aventine Renewable Energy (NYSE:AVR) to "neutral" from "under-perform" according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that JP Morgan upgraded BP (NYSE:BP) to "overweight" from "neutral."
Harley-Davidson's (NYSE:HOG) sales will be hurt in Q1 by an overall 7 percent and 9 percent motorcycle sales drop nationwide according to Wachovia research quoted by the AP.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
When last I looked at Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) in 2007 the stock was trading a lot higher. I argued at the time that there was value in this quality company and investors should take a look. Others liked the company, but wisely said there was plenty of time to wait because profits would be coming down with the slowing economy.
Some commented that HOG was over-priced in the high $40's even though it had come down from it's 52-week high of $66 per share. It was trading at a sizable 26% discount when I posted Chasing Value: Harley-Davidson (HOG) profits down 15% -- beats Wall St. last November at $48.95. Having closed yesterday at $39.39 it is now down over 40%.
Many of the brightest minds in my circles feel the economy will not pick up significantly for another 18 months and that we will have fits and starts in between then and now. There does not appear to be any urgency to acquiring stocks that will be dependent on economic recovery to turn for the better. However, HOG might be one to dollar cost average into over time if you believe it will not turn into General Motors or fade like Levi Strauss.
It is currently paying over a 3% dividend yield and unlike other companies Harley has been raising it recently, not lowering it. The P/E ratio of 10 which is projected to hold going forward, the ROE over 36 which is substantial and the ROIC over 20 are more than respectable.
I have not heard even a whisper doubting its superior quality of management and they seem to have put any labor issues to rest as well. I thought there was value in HOG a few months ago so I have to believe the story is even better today with international markets growing and all types of motorcycles being considered for those trying to stretch their gas dollars.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of HOG.
I don't normally watch the stock of Harley Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG). Lately though, I've had a look at how it's doing and things look pretty ugly right about now. Value investors might be tempted to buy in or to build on an existing position at this time, and that may be a good choice, but as far as a seasonal investment, this year HOG may be scheduled for intake to the slaughter house. In the face of a worsening economy and a kaleidoscope of consumer credit woes, that big bike maker probably won't be faring so well. It's my opinion that domestically, Harley Davidson is going to become it's own largest competitor, at least in the near term.
For the last 20 years, buying a Harley has been a purchase of status far more than an expenditure of need. As much as 85% of the Harley Davidson fleet has been purchased by pleasure riders rather than commuters or hard-core biker types. This reality puts those classy machines into the realm of consumer toys rather than consumer needs. Add to this the fact that Harley riders are getting older. They say: If you won't be able to pick up your bike when you lay it down, it's time to give up the ride.
My point here is that more and more Harley Davidson motorcycles are entering the secondary phase of their life cycles. First phase owners are beginning to sell off their bikes. I noticed the increase of used Harleys for sale beginning two years ago, and last year I noticed the start of a very slight decline in asking prices. This does spell good news if you're in the market for one, and if that's the case, I envy you. However, this signals tougher marketing domestically for that classic American icon, hence the Harley Davidson push into India and China.
The market continues to extend yesterday's rally, following an agreement by U.S. leaders to a stimulus plan to avoid a major slowdown in the country's economy, but motorcycle giant Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) shares are in the red after posting a deep decline in its quarterly profit.
Harley-Davidson reported this morning a drop of 26.3% in its fourth-quarter profit, following weak motorcycles sales in the United States. The American market is its biggest and most important market.
Jim Ziemer, the company's chief executive, blames the "challenging" retail environment for the company's disappointing profit which fell to $186.1 million, or 78 cents per share. Harley-Davidson posted a net income of $252.4 million, or 97 cents per share in the same period a year ago. The results came in short of analyst estimates for a profit of 82 cents per share.
How Could One Man Cost a Company Over $7 Billion? How could this possibly have happened? One of the biggest frauds in financial-services history apparently was carried out by a 31-year-old trader in Société Générale's Paris headquarters, whom multiple news sources have identified as Jerome Kerviel. Many are left to wonder about the lucrative but risky equity-derivatives business. Société Générale's Fraud: What Now?
America's Fastest Growing Tech Companies Even in a rough market, these companies are poised to soar. Topping the list is Google, followed by Salesforce.com, Ceradyne, Euronet Worldwide and Falconstor Software. America's 25 Fastest-Growing Tech Companies - Forbes.com
Amgen Inc (NASDAQ: AMGN) said on Thursday that fourth-quarter profit edged higher. The cost cut measure the world's largest biotechnology company by sales has taken helped it post a quarterly net profit of $835 million, or 76 cents per share, compared with a profit of $833 million, or 71 cents per share, a year ago. Excluding items, Amgen earned $1.00 per share, topping analysts' average expectations by 3 cents a share, according to Reuters Estimates. More importantly, though was Amgen's sales of the red blood cell booster Aranesp -- seen as its most important product -- which easily beat analysts expectation. Shares are up nearly 3.5% in premarket trading.
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) had just reported, saying its fourth-quarter earnings rose 11% to $975 million, or $1.50 per share on strong international growth, which offset weakness in the domestic market. Revenue rose 10% to $12.14 billion. Analysts were expecting a profit of $1.50 per share on revenue of $11.79 billion, according to a poll by Thomson Financial. Revenue outlook for 2008 was slightly below expectations. Stock is up 0.77% in premarket trading.
Honywell Internationl Inc. (NYSE: HON), also reported late Thursday, saying that fourth-quarter net income rose 18% to $689 million, or 91 cents per share, inline with analyst estimates. All its four business segments experienced growth. Fourth-quarter sales were up 12% to $9.3 billion. HON shares are up 1.4% in premarket trading.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Harley-Davidson, JP Morgan Chase and AMBAC were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Citigroup downgraded shares of Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) to Sell from Hold and lowered their target to $36 from $51 on expectations for sluggish U.S. retail sales in Q4. They expect U.S. retail sales to decline 10%-12% in the quarter.
JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) was lowered to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer, citing the company's dramatic increase in consumer losses.
AMBAC (NYSE: ABK) was downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair following news of the company's expected loss and CEO departure, given the lack of visibility.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) and McAfee (NYSE: MFE) Were downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
Lehman downgraded Decode Genetics (NASDAQ: DCGN) to Underweight from Equal Weight.
Oppenheimer downgraded Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) to Perform from Outperform.
Boeing (NYSE: BA) was upgraded by Bernstein from Market Perform to Outperform. However, Boeing said this morning, PrivatAir has ordered an additional 787-model airplane for $162 million.
Adobe Systems (NASDAQ: ADBE) and McAfee (NYSE: MFE) were downgraded from Buy to Neutral by UBS.
Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) was downgraded by Citigroup from Hold to Sell. Shares down over 4% in premarket trading.
Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) was downgraded by Charter Equity from Buy to Market Perform.
Oppenheimer downgraded JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) from Outperform to Perform.
Piper Jaffray downgraded Jones Soda (NASDAQ: JSDA) from Buy to Neutral. Shares down over 3% in premarket trading.
Friedman Billings, with its Outperform rating on Alcoa (NYSE: AA), lowered the aluminum maker's target price from $38 to $35.
Altria (NYSE: MO)'s target price was upped to $88 from $79 by Credit Suisse, which rates the stock Outperform.
TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: AMTD) reported a 65% rise in its fiscal first-quarter net income as trading activity increased and asset-based revenue continued to grow. The company reported $240.8 million net income, or 40 cents per share, beating estimates by a penny. AMTD shares are up 4% in premarket trading.
This week's Barron's examined Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) as a value play. Having written multiple posts enumerating many of the same points over the last couple of months, it seems that there is not much left to be said, except to simply lay out the Harley Bulls vs. Bears points.
The Bull story is that Harley-Davidson remains a world-class brand name, selling at a discount to its historic P/E and the average of the market. It has a high 40% return on equity, a clean balance sheet, excellent management, double-digit growth in foreign markets, and will maintain its profit margins through its carefully managed (now reduced) production cycles. It also has relatively predictable income from the sale of replacement parts, licensed products and its finance company.
The Bears think the Bulls are full of it, and that Harley's past its prime just like the Baby Boomers that continue to be the lifeblood of the company. The average buyer is a 46-year-old white male, and that market can not sustain Harley going forward. They also argue that, costing an average of $14,000, these bikes are the wrong product in a market where consumer discretionary spending is waning as talk of a possible recession lingers on.
"You don't need to be a motorcycle enthusiast to be familiar with the powerful Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) brand name," notes Nathan Slaughter in his Half-Priced Stocks newsletter.
"In fact," he adds, "Harley-Davidson doesn't have a single major U.S-based competitor -- something very few companies can claim."
The value investor explains, "For those that do enjoy riding on the open road, Harley-Davidson is practically a lifestyle unto itself. With over 1,300 dealerships in 60 countries around the world, the firm has carved out an impressive share of the heavyweight motorcycle market and delivered record revenues for 20 consecutive years."
Slaughter continues, "Founded in 1903, the company now boasts over one million members in the Harley Owners Group (HOG) and enjoys an intensely loyal customer base that few rivals have been able to penetrate.
"And like other companies with entrenched brand names, Harley-Davidson is able to command premium prices for its products. As a result, margins have expanded dramatically and earnings have consistently outpaced revenues -- climbing 23% annually over the past decade.
"This built-in competitive advantage also shows up in lofty returns on capital that currently stand above 30%. Better still, the shareholder-friendly management team isn't shy about returning excess cash to shareholders. In fact, the company repurchased 19.3 million shares last year, and dividends have been hiked in each of the past 13 years.
In late September I wrote about the value I saw in Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) and did several follow-up stories addressing reader comments and market activity. After the past couple of turbulent days in the stock market I was checking to see what was holding up, lo-and-behold, Harley was doing just fine.
When I first posted about HOG, it was trading at $48.59 a share. Today it closed at $49.20. Under most conditions this would not be worth talking about, but when the market is full of doubt and the Dow Jones Industrial Average drops 400 points in two days then I think it is. Then you have to ask yourself, why?
This is a company that has reported slower sales, and modest sales, going forward. Not many people will be receiving motorcycles as winter holiday gifts, so it is not the season to be jolly for Harley. Therefore, given the markets' turmoil, it must be something more basic. I think it gets back to integrity.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Motorola, Paccar, Pacific Sunwear, Talbots and RightNow Tech were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) to Buy from Neutral on valuation, and is positive on the company's free cash flow generation.
Wachovia raised Paccar Inc. (NASDAQ: PCAR) estimates to Market Perform from Underperform based on better-than-expected European performance.
Citigroup upgraded shares of Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Buy from Hold as they believe the demo division divestiture and improving product execution in core PacSun stores could drive accelerating EPS growth.
Citigroup also upgraded shares of Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) to Hold from Sell on valuation but remains concerned about the company's long-term outlook.
Roth Capital upgraded RightNow Technologies (NASDAQ: RNOW) to Buy from Hold, as they are encouraged by RNOW's Q3 results and raised guidance and believes the worst is behind the company.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman added Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) to its Conviction Buy List.
Thomas Weisel upgraded Akamai (NADAQ: AKAM) to Overweight from Market Weight.
Lehman upgraded Harley Davidson (NYSE: HOG) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
Before the bell: Futures higher following deal news; investors await Fed move
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This week's 
In late September I wrote about 
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Housing starts surprisingly rise in April on apartment construction
