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After writing two recent articles and having received many comments supporting the Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) value proposition, I wanted to add one more important point for investors who are not convinced there is value in the stock. Even if those who believe that Harley's best days are behind it are correct in their discussion points, it does not follow that the stock is priced correctly at the moment. Case in point -- GM.
I think that one of the most important things to consider when buying a stock is whether the the market has got it right. Most of the time the short term answer is that the stock is not priced correctly and General Motors (NYSE: GM) is a good example of that. Last year, in 2006, GM was the best performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In the first quarter of 2006, you could have purchased shares for under $20. By the third quarter, GM had reached $36 a share, an 80% increase, and this year it has reached $38 share.
This is a huge turnaround, but GM is selling primarily the same cars. It is only now beginning tough negotiations with the UAW and it has more problems than I need rehash here to make my point. So last year investors were bearish on GM and the stock was down and everyone was bemoaning the company.
Yet now the stock is up far more than anything the company's prospects would warrant. What's going on here? The simple answer is that last year, following the bearish sentiment on the stock, it got too cheap and it took some time for the market to realize that. Now, I think Harley-Davidson is too cheap and when the market recognizes this, some folks buying HOG now will have made some money.
To find potential opportunities and verify my track record read Chasing Value or Serious Money.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He is on the advisory board of Internet start-up CircleBuilder.com.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-24-2007 @ 12:35PM
The_Village_Idiot said...
I've traded HOG in the past but wouldn't own it here. There's probably a 70/30 chance we're heading into recession. You gotta consider even their typical customer (now a 58 year old dentist) will be less likely to buy a $20K+ bike for his wild weekend rides. It may become a buy again if Buffet or Honda Motors show takeover interest.
9-25-2007 @ 12:15PM
Stkwizard007 said...
Much of the buying of Harleys came from equity pulled out of homes. That capital is not so avaiable now so the HOG may have to be revalued to the low $30's.
9-27-2007 @ 7:44PM
b said...
the both of you are so wrong. Anyone that has money can afford hog either in stock or buying a bike. doctors make milliions. and the younger generation wants only a hog not a honda. so times are tough now but lets be positive that the stock will move up within the year and remember this company at least pays a DIVIDEND.