Posted Sep 5th 2008 1:49PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Halliburton (HAL), Commodities, Oil

Goldman Sachs shook up its
ratings on the oil-services sector today, and made a notable adjustment to its "conviction buy" list --
Halliburton (NYSE:
HAL) was ousted from the roster in favor of
Transocean Inc. (NYSE:
RIG). The brokerage firm still maintains a "buy" rating on HAL, but it's pretty obvious that the stock is now playing Jan Brady to RIG's Marcia.
So, why does Goldman prefer RIG to HAL? The former is more strongly levered to oil than the latter -- and, going forward, the analysts expect strong fundamentals and heightened oil prices to support "oilier" stocks. In a note to clients, Goldman said, "... we continue to expect a healthy oil-services spending environment through 2010, supported by low reinvestment rates and secular trends to more complex, high-margin drilling services."
Despite the bullish "buy" ratings on both securities, Goldman tempered its optimism by trimming its price targets on the duo. HAL's forecast was slashed from $63 to $58, while RIG's was trimmed from $189 to $178. The new price targets represent a 44.5% premium from HAL's closing price yesterday, and a 47% increase from RIG's Thursday settlement.
Continue reading Transocean bumps Halliburton from Goldman's conviction buy list
Posted Sep 5th 2008 12:00PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Bad news, Consumer experience, Marketing and advertising
This post is part of our Ads Gone Bad series. Share your thoughts and memories of this ad in the comments, and be sure to check out our other posts on marketing gone wrong.
If Americans are sensitive about racial issues, it's not without reason. Consider the Trail of Tears, or slavery, or the internment of the Japanese during World War II, and it's clear that we've breached more than our fair share of ethical boundaries. But, judging by the reaction to a Salesgenie ad that aired during Super Bowl XLII in 2008, we've also come a long way.
If the upset victory pulled off by the New York Giants in that game was shocking, so was the approach taken by Salesgenie.com's marketing masterminds. The commercial in question featured a pair of talking cartoon pandas, complete with Chinese accents -- a married couple, to be exact, and the apparent proprietors of Ling Ling's Bamboo Furniture Shack. (Click here to watch the ad.)
The storyline of the commercial is not too shocking: business is bad; nagging wife doesn't want to move back to the zoo; husband turns to Salesgenie.com for free sales leads; now, business is great! In other words, it's not nearly as appalling as some old, World War II-era Looney Tunes clips (don't click here if you're easily offended).
However, there was something distinctly off-putting about the Salesgenie pandas, with their broken English and their misspelled "Sofaz" sign. I remember seeing it myself and thinking, "Well, that's bold." It turns out the rest of the viewing public was equally unsettled, and the negative feedback was sufficient to result in the ad being pulled from the airwaves.
Continue reading Ads Gone Bad: Pandas aren't cute when they're racist, Salesgenie
Posted Sep 3rd 2008 11:55AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Earnings reports, Stocks to Sell, Technology
After the closing bell last night, silicon-wafer producer MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR) offered a mid-quarter update that's sent the shares reeling into negative territory this morning. The report started auspiciously enough, as CEO Nabeel Gareeb noted that current production rates "could allow us to achieve results in the upper half of our targeted financial range" of $560 million to $620 million in revenue.
His comment seemed to indicate that MEMC might exceed analysts' expected revenue of $596.7 million, as reported by Thomson Financial. But Gareeb then tempered his optimism by adding, "However, there is increased softness in demand from semiconductor applications customers, primarily due to their inventory reduction initiatives. These elements warrant a continued degree of caution in our outlook, given the amount of time left in the quarter."
Additionally, MEMC warned that it expects operating expenses of approximately $43 million for the third quarter, up from its previous projection of $41 million. The increase is largely attributable to one-time, non-cash severance-related expenses.
Continue reading MEMC Electronic Materials sinks after warning of weak chip demand
Posted Aug 26th 2008 10:32AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Major movement, Earnings reports, Options, Housing
After the closing bell last night, Thornburg Mortgage, Inc. (NYSE: TMA) managed to report a second-quarter profit, but the firm warned investors that it's in jeopardy of collapse as margin calls continue to roll in. Thornburg said that it covered $219 million of demands for collateral on August 21, and may face another $25.9 million of margin calls. Plus, uncertainty still remains about the outcome of an exchange offer that was meant to pull the New Mexico-based mortgage lender back from the brink of bankruptcy.
The jumbo-loan specialist said it swung to a second-quarter profit of $412.3 million, or 84 cents per share, after swallowing a first-quarter loss of $3.31 billion. During the recently concluded quarter, Thornburg wrote down $209.6 million in mortgage losses, which was offset by a $536.9-million gain from the declining value of a liability. Adjusted income for the period was $22.7 million.
Under the terms of a deal with MatlinPatterson Global Advisers, Thornburg agreed in March to conduct an exchange offer for some preferred stock. The offer expires on September 3, and holders of two-thirds of each of four classes of preferred stock must participate. The company warned that uncertainty about the outcome of the exchange offer, combined with the still-shaky market conditions, "raise substantial doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern for the foreseeable future."
Continue reading Can Thornburg Mortgage survive another round of margin calls?
Posted Aug 22nd 2008 12:06PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Analyst reports, Wachovia Corp (WB), Lehman Br Holdings (LEH)
The shares of Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB) opened on a gain of nearly 6% this morning, thanks to a positive note from brokerage firm UBS. The analysts raised their price target on WB from $12.50 to $16, and reiterated a "neutral" rating. However, the stock has wasted no time in whittling its early morning gains, and slipped into negative territory before midday.
Yesterday, Wachovia shares closed lower after Friedman Billings & Ramsey reinitiated coverage at "underperform." No surprise there -- but, in today's session, the equity is declining on what should have been a bullish boost from UBS. In fact, most financial stocks are higher today following speculation on a potential buyout bid for Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH). The Select Sector SPDR Financial Fund (NYSE: XLF) is sitting on a gain of more than 2% at last check.
Continue reading Wachovia bounces, then fizzles, on price-target boost
Posted Aug 19th 2008 1:55PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Products and services, Apple Inc (AAPL), AT and T (T), Research in Motion (RIMM), iPhone, Stocks to Buy, Technology
In an exciting bit of news for early adopters north of the border, the new BlackBerry Bold smartphone from Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) is slated to hit Canadian shelves this Thursday, August 21. Because RIMM has signed service pacts with various wireless carriers in different regions, the Bold is being rolled out gradually around the globe. The snappy new device has already launched in Germany, but U.S. carrier AT&T (NYSE: T) is so far keeping mum about its plans for the Bold's Stateside debut.
The latest addition to the CrackBerry family is aimed toward business users; as proof, even Rupert Murdoch is getting in on the act. The Wall Street Journal Digital Network announced today that it's launched a new mobile application to provide immediate access to headlines in the WSJ family of financial publications (including Barron's, MarketWatch, and All Things Digital). The application is available for free on most BlackBerry smartphones.
Naturally, the Bold has already garnered comparisons to Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone -- but there are a few notable differences. While Jobs & Co. are slowly trying to make headway into the corporate world, their core audience is still top-heavy with tech-gadget completists and trust-fund hipsters. Meanwhile, BlackBerry's already in business with business, and the new WSJ app is just an extra boost of its Street cred.
Continue reading RIMM's BlackBerry Bold -- lack of hype is the hype
Posted Aug 15th 2008 3:01PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Earnings reports, Home Depot (HD), DJIA, Housing
Amid an unprecedented decline in the housing market and a significant slowdown in consumer spending, Home Depot (NYSE: HD) is in the unenviable position of being a housing-dependent retailer. Not surprisingly, analysts are skeptical ahead of the company's second-quarter earnings report, which is slated to hit the Street next Tuesday, August 19, ahead of the opening bell.
According to Thomson Financial, analysts are expecting HD to report a profit of 61 cents per share for the recently concluded quarter. During the past year, the company's performance in the earnings spotlight has been mixed. First Call reports that Home Depot has exceeded earnings estimates in two of the past four quarters, and fallen short of the Street's mark in the other two reporting periods. Its second-quarter report a year ago was one of the upside surprises; HD beat expectations by five cents per share last August.
However, it doesn't look like brokerage firms are banking on another Street-beating quarter. There have been 3 downward revisions to HD's estimated annual earnings, compared to just 1 upward revision (per First Call). Meanwhile, the average 12-month price target on the shares is $29.53. This target is a premium of 8.6% to the stock's closing price Thursday, but it represents a discount of more than 23% to HD's current annual high. In other words, analysts' expectations for the stock are rather low.
Continue reading Can Home Depot (HD) surprise skeptical analysts with its second-quarter earnings?
Posted Aug 13th 2008 11:22AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Earnings reports, Analyst reports, China
Shares of Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (NASDAQ: CTRP) dropped into negative territory right out of the gate this morning, thanks to some skeptical analyst commentary. The Shanghai-based travel firm is slated to report its second-quarter earnings after the closing bell tonight, and Piper Jaffray analyst Michael J. Olson warned in a client note that he expects CTRP's results to fall short of consensus estimates.
Olson, who maintains a "neutral" rating on CTRP, cited the severe earthquake that hit western China in May as a key fundamental challenge for the company. He noted a 1% year-over-year decline in Chinese air traffic during the second quarter, observing, "This is the first time since the SARS issue in 2003 that China Airline traffic data has turned negative." He also expects that Ctrip's third-quarter outlook will disappoint the Street, due to travel restrictions related to the Olympic Games in Beijing.
Ahead of tonight's second-quarter release, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are expecting Ctrip.com to report a profit of 20 cents per American Depositary Receipt (ADR) on $53.8 million in revenue. The company has a history of solid performance in the earnings spotlight; according to First Call, Ctrip.com has exceeded analysts' consensus estimates in each of the previous four quarters. And, in contrast to Olson's skepticism, Catherine Leung of Citi Investment Research believes that the online travel firm can pull off another positive surprise.
Continue reading Ctrip.com International (CTRP) drops on bearish analyst note ahead of earnings
Posted Aug 12th 2008 10:15AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Marketing and advertising, McDonald's (MCD)
This post is one in a series on prominent company nicknames. See all 25, and share your thoughts and memories about Mickey D's below in the comments.
Should you ever doubt that I was born and bred a United States citizen, let the following anecdote erase all skepticism. Flashing back to 1983 for a moment, we find my 2-year-old self in my dad's old Plymouth station wagon. We're on the way to pick up my sister from Montessori school, and I'm riding in the front seat (a flagrant violation of my mother's car-seat rule, not to mention Ohio state law). From my shotgun perch, I have a clear view of the windshield wiper knob for the first time ... and, to my toddler's eye, the button atop this lever screams one message: McDonald's (NYSE: MCD).
That's right; I thought that the familiar wiper-fluid icon, with its two arches fanning out from one central stem, was somehow related to America's premier fast-food export. My quickly formed hypothesis went something along the lines of, In case of emergency, press here, and the Golden Arches will appear on the horizon. (Are you listening, automakers? The future is now!) As formative childhood memories go, this one blissfully passes up Freud and heads straight to Jung.
It might sound like an exaggeration, but the Golden Arches are nothing if not archetypal. Sure, there are other notable arches in the world; the Gateway Arch in St. Louis springs to mind, as does France's Arc de Triomphe, and the reasonable facsimile thereof in New York City's Washington Square Park. But, I ask you, is there another parabola in the world that so effortlessly communicates the same message in Beijing as it does in Cincinnati?
Continue reading Company nicknames: St. Louis has nothing on McDonald's Golden Arches
Posted Aug 12th 2008 9:42AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Major movement, Earnings reports
Fossil, Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL), the maker of watches and trendy apparel, surprised the Street this morning with stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings. The retailer multiplied the positive momentum by boosting its full-year forecast. This double dose of good news has sent shares of Fossil more than 8% higher in early-morning trading.
For the recently concluded quarter, net income soared 71% to $25.1 million, or 36 cents per share, while net sales jumped 15% to $353.2 million. The results exceeded Fossil's own forecast, provided in May, for a profit of 29 cents per share on sales growth of 12% to 14%. Analysts had even more modest expectations, with the consensus calling for a profit of 25 cents per share on $346.9 million in revenue.
Digging deeper into the second-quarter figures, gross margin rose from 49.1% to 53.9%, thanks to cost-cutting initiatives and inventory management. Same-store sales climbed 5.7%, while direct-to-consumer sales surged 25%. Domestic watch sales grew by 2.3%, and international wholesale sales rose 20% (or 9.5%, excluding currency fluctuations).
Continue reading Fossil, Inc. (FOSL) catches the shorts off-guard with strong 2Q report
Posted Aug 11th 2008 2:10PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Industry, Consumer experience, Ford Motor (F), Marketing and advertising
This post is one in a series on prominent company nicknames. See all 25, and share your thoughts and memories about Ford below in the comments.
I didn't grow up in one of those families that placed a high premium on American-made goods. If the Japanese can make it better, we'll buy it from them! was the general consensus. And those foreign autos served the Harrows well. My parents bought their 1984 Toyota Tercel when it was new, and that unattractive but reliable compact was part of the family through the beginning of my college career -- even surviving my first, hilarious attempts to operate a manual transmission. So, it wasn't until I moved in with my friend Debbie, as an adult, that I learned the details behind a particularly unflattering nickname for the Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F).
There are those who would joke that the letters in "FORD" stand for "Fix Or Repair Daily." I know from experience that if you make that particular wisecrack within Debbie's earshot, she probably won't crack a smile. Instead, you can almost see her wheels churning, as though she's trying to calculate the thousands she's already poured into her Ford Focus -- or maybe she's just trying to predict which part will break down next.
During the time we shared a mailbox, it was a not-out-of-the-ordinary occurrence for Debbie to receive recall notices bearing the familiar Ford logo. These repair-o-grams arrived with such frequency that the exact number now escapes my memory; when I questioned her via text message, she replied, "I have had six. Stupid car."
Continue reading Company nicknames: Ford's reputation for quality found on road dead
Posted Aug 8th 2008 2:29PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Earnings reports, Deere and Co (DE)

Agricultural equipment icon Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) is scheduled to step into the earnings spotlight next Wednesday, August 13. Ahead of the firm's third-quarter report, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting a profit of $1.37 per share. During the previous four quarters, DE has managed to meet or exceed Wall Street's expectations three times; during its second-quarter report, released in May, the company fell short by one penny per share. At the time, Deere warned that rising material costs could put a dent in third-quarter and full-year earnings.
However, it seems that some speculative investors have a short memory where Deere & Co. is concerned. Option activity on the stock is leaning distinctly bullish ahead of earnings, which could set the stage for a sharp downside move in the event of another profit miss.
The International Securities Exchange (ISE) reports that DE boasts a 10-day call/put ratio of 5.80. This data, which measures buy-to-open activity among retail-level investors, reveals that traders have purchased nearly 6 times more calls to open than puts on DE during the past couple of weeks. According to the ISE, option activity on the stock has not been more bullishly skewed at any other time during the past year. That's a rather bold optimistic bias, considering the stock has shed 28% year-to-date.
Continue reading Are hopes too high for Deere & Co. (DE) ahead of earnings?
Posted Aug 6th 2008 10:58AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Earnings reports
The shares of Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: OWW) are skidding all over the charts today following the company's second-quarter earnings release. Orbitz confessed to a net loss of $5 million, or six cents per share, much improved from its year-ago loss of $32 million. Revenue for the recently concluded quarter inched 1% higher to $231 million.
While the results were better than the same quarter in 2007, analysts were looking for an even smaller loss of three cents per share on more robust revenue of $234 million.
Gross bookings increased 4% to $3 billion, thanks to a little help from overseas -- international bookings rocketed 41% higher, compared to a 1% slump in domestic bookings. Orbitz's international business now accounts for 23% of its revenue, up three percentage points from the year prior.
Despite the challenges facing Orbitz, president and CEO Steven Barnhart professed his enthusiasm about some new initiatives to drive growth. Specifically, the travel firm is launching a new "Price Assurance" functionality, and the company just entered a multi-year partnership with Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to serve as the online provider for MSN.com's travel portals. Barnhart said these initiatives "will accelerate our domestic growth in the second half of the year and help offset any impact from current economic and travel industry uncertainty."
Continue reading Orbitz Worldwide (OWW) plunges on second-quarter loss, domestic weakness
Posted Aug 2nd 2008 10:00AM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Major movement, Bad news, S and P 500, Housing
In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade -- what went wrong, and what happens next.
The No. 1 and No. 2 spots on our underperformers' list both belong to bond insurers. Along with MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI), Ambac Financial Group (NYSE: ABK) has been battered bloody during the past 12 months. Prior to that, the security was riding high on a years-long uptrend, before some of its more unsavory investments came to light amid the subprime crisis.
What went wrong? At No. 1 on our list of SPX losers, ABK lost a staggering 97% of its value during the 10-year period that concluded on June 30, 2008. From its May 2007 peak of $96.10, ABK is down 98%.
Ambac's story is not too different from that of MBIA. The company enjoyed triple-A ratings, even as its portfolio grew increasingly more risky under the weight of subprime-linked debt. As of December 2007, no insurer was more exposed to bad mortgage debt than Ambac -- the company insured $22 billion of subprime mortgage debt, nearly double the exposure of MBIA.
Continue reading Worst 10-year performers: Ambac Financial tops the list
Posted Aug 1st 2008 5:00PM by Elizabeth Harrow
Filed under: Major movement, Bad news, S and P 500, Housing, MBIA Inc (MBI)
In this series, we take a look at the 25 stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) that have turned in the worst performance during the past decade -- what went wrong, and what happens next. (See all 25).
While financial-services firms have been dragged down as a group for more than a year, few have flamed out with the spectacular ferocity of municipal bond insurer MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI). In fact, among equities listed on the S&P 500 during the past decade, only one stock has suffered a more severe plunge in share price.
What went wrong? At no. 2 on our list of SPX slackers, MBI lost 91% of its value during the decade that ended June 30, 2008. The stock peaked at $76.02 in January 2007, which marked the last in a series of higher highs for the formerly uptrending security.
MBIA's troubles first started in January 2007, though its issues at the time would pale in comparison with later challenges. Then, the company agreed to pay $75 million to settle civil securities-fraud charges by federal and New York State authorities. MBIA was accused of making secret side deals with reinsurance companies to avoid stating a $170-million loss in 1998. As part of the settlement, MBIA said it would restate earnings from 1998 through 2004 and improve its business and accounting procedures.
Continue reading Worst 10-year performers: MBIA takes a triple-A nosedive on risky mortgage debt
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